Research Seminar – 關於中國（廣東）房地產去庫存狀況及前景 The reality and prospect of real estate de-stocking in Guangzhou

Research Seminar

Topic:
關於中國（廣東）房地產去庫存狀況及前景
The reality and prospect of real estate de-stocking in Guangzhou

Speaker:
Prof. Suisheng Cai (蔡穗聲)
President
Guangdong Real Estate Association
(廣東省房地產行業協會會長)

Schedule:
Tuesday, 26 April 2016 (16:00-17:00)
Room 829, Knowles Building
The University of Hong Kong
(Lecture in Putonghua 普通話演講)

Abstract:
The total amount of housing units for sale in China had reached 718.530 million m² at the end of 2015, which are the finished goods inventories could last for about 7 months.

In first-tier cities, the size and price of the real estate market keep increasing and the issue of de-stocking does not exist. The housing stock in second-tier cities is large while the purchasing power is exuberant. Only those third-tier and fourth-tier cities face the problem of oversupply and need de-stocking.

In dealing with the rapid increase of housing price in first-tier cities and the daunting task of de-stocking in third-tier and fourth-tier cities, the Chinese government should refine the regional planning, improve the rail transportation network and evacuate some industrial functions of first-tier cities to meet the spillover demand of housing. Accordingly, our final aim is to promote the development of dense urban agglomeration through the real estate price adjustment mechanism.

摘要：
2015年末全國待售商品房71853 萬平方米，可銷售七個月左右，是成品庫存量。
一線城市房地產市場規模和價格仍在上升，去庫存的問題基本不存在。二線城市庫存量大，消費力也旺盛。三、四線城市存在階段性供過於求、需要去庫存的問題。
就一線城市房價過快上漲、三四線城市去庫存任務艱巨的現狀，需要完善區域規劃，建設軌道交通網，疏散一線城市的某些產業功能，滿足其住房的外溢需求。從而，通過房價調節機制，促成緊密城鎮群體的構建。

About the Speaker:
Mr. Suisheng Cai, is the President of Guangdong Real Estate Association. He is President of Nanfang Real Estate Magazine, member of Housing Policy Expert Committee, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (May 2007 to now) and Vice President of Guangdong Economics Society (Dec. 2007 to now). He holds honorary professorship in The Department of Urban Planning & Design at The University of Hong Kong (Oct.2013-Aug.2016) and guest professorship in Real Estate College of Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai (2008 to now). He was also a visiting scholar, Institute for Housing & Urban Research, Uppsala University, Sweden in 2004. His research interests include the property market and housing policies.

作者簡介：
蔡穗聲先生現任廣東省房地產行業協會會長。他是《南方房地產》雜誌社社長，住房和城鄉建設部住房政策專家委員會委員（2007年5月至今），廣東經濟學會副會長（2007年12 月至今）。他也是香港大學建築學院城市規劃及設計系榮譽教授（2013年10月-2016年8月），北京師範大學珠海分校不動產學院客座教授（2008年至今）。在2004年，曾是瑞典烏普薩拉大學住房與城市發展研究所訪問學者。他的研究興趣包括房地產市場和住房政策。

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